iPad 3 - Niche Platform

It should come as no surprise that I think that the iPad is going to be a reasonable success. I am not going to be first in line to buy one, and probably won't even spring for the first revision or two. But I'm sure that I will own one, and I believe strongly that there will be a pretty good rush on the devices from a surprisingly wide range of people.

There are lots of great justifications as to why the product will either fail miserably or succeed beyond anyone's imagination. And there are as many declarations that it's a true revolution as there are that it's just a big iPhone or iPod Touch. But strangely enough, most of those rationales do not appeal to me; the one that jumps out is that last one, which is usually used to dismiss the iPad as a product.

I don't have an iPhone, but I do have an iPod Touch. But I don't use it to listen to music very often. It's not safe to do while driving or biking, it would get in the way of my work during the day, and it wouldn't be very good for my marriage if I listened to it while I was spending time with the family. My primary exercise is swimming, and while I considered looking into a waterproof set-up, the idea of strapping that thing to my trunks seems a little high maintenance. I sometimes listen to it while I'm walking my dog, but these days, time's so limited that instead I typically use that time to catch up with friends by phone.

So instead, the iPod mostly sits on my desk during the day, on the coffee table evenings and weekends, and on my bedside at night. It's my alarm clock, for one thing, but it's also just a really convenient way to check my personal email, twitter, calendar, train schedule, etc... during the day, and to do casual browsing and the like when I'm not at work. Pulling out my laptop for anything shy of a blog entry or actual coding seems like a waste of effort. If I'm going to use the laptop, it's a commitment. I can check my email on my iPod in about 10 seconds from the moment I pick the device up to the time I put it down.

Right from the start, I thought to myself that if only the iPod Touch were a few inches bigger, it'd make a great ebook reader, and it would be a much better browsing experience. I thought also that if I had such a device, I might not use my laptop except for work.

And now such a device exists, or will exist in a couple of months. I had been hoping for something a little smaller, more like 7" diagonal, with a smaller bezel, and something that would jack into a dock in order to be able to drive an external monitor and act like a normal Mac, reverting to a tablet when it was out of the dock. But while it's not my dream device, it is indeed something that I will use, because effectively, it is a big iPod Touch. If only my Touch didn't work so wonderfully, I'd consider buying and iPad right away, but unfortunately, it remains useful enough that I can't justify plunking down $629 in late March. Yes, I know it comes cheaper, but 3G would mean no worrying about hot spots...

And that brings me to the biggest effect that I think the iPad will have on the rest of the industry. Just like the iMac pushed USB into ubiquity, the iPad is going to be the thing that makes everyone expect 3G/WiMax radios on all mobile devices. Phones, laptops, netbooks and yes, tablets. Companies that make dongles should start thinking about their next business today.